THERE'S now a "less than 20 per cent chance" Boris Johnson will need to trigger new Covid restrictions due to falling cases, insiders say.
Whitehall officials are increasingly confident the PM won't need to reach for Plan B which would impose masks, working from home, and vaccine passports.
ReutersInsiders are increasingly confident Boris Johnson won't have to trigger Plan B[/caption]
No 10 is said to have been buoyed by a sharp dip in new infections over the last week and predictions from scientists that the virus will burn out.
The initially sluggish booster jabs campaign has now also kicked into new gear with early evidence emerging it's cutting spread amongst the elderly.
Boris has been warned triggering Plan B would cost the economy up to an eye-watering £18 billion over the winter.
And scientists say those measures might only make a marginal impact on the spread of the virus anyway.
Business minister Paul Scully said the Government is aware of the cost of "stop start" lockdowns and doesn't want to "stifle" the recovery.
Leaked papers drawn up officials at the Cabinet Office and Treasury predict Plan B would cost up to £3.6bn a month.
Whitehall mandarins are working on the "assumption" new restrictions would stay in place until March next year.
According to the documents, obtained by Politico, working from home would be cause the biggest hit to businesses.
Officials say telling people to stay away from offices would only have a moderately positive impact on cutting transmission.
They also warn the PM vaccine passports would make a negligible difference to stopping the virus whilst having a "high impact" on the economy.
The research says Covid papers would reduce overall transmission across the country by just 1-5 percent.
That's because though even they cut spread at mass events by 40-45 per cent, only 2-13% of new infections occur at such venues.
And mandarins warn imposing vaccine passports could have "wider impacts" and further deepen the UK's supply chain crisis.
The paper says they are "likely to have a positive impact in reducing transmission, although it is not possible to say accurately by how much".
'No sense' Plan B needed
Officials said reimposing a full lockdown, which the PM insists he's not considering, would have a much greater effect on squashing the virus.
A Government spokesman said: "We knew the coming months would be challenging, which is why we set out our autumn and winter plan last month.
"Plan B ensures we are ready, should we need to act, to avoid an unsustainable rise in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS.
"The presumptions put forward do not reflect government policy. There is no planned five-month timeline."
Separate Whitehall research, seen by the Telegraph, calculates vaccine passports could cost the events sector up to £2.3bn over six months.
It warns bringing them in would simply push people from larger, well ventilated venues like football stadiums into crowded pubs.
Mr Scully insisted the PM still sees no plan to trigger Plan B as hospitalisations haven't risen sharply in line with cases.
He said: "We saw the concerns of businesses when we had the stop-start nature this time last year and we knew the cost to business of that.
"That's why we're taking every measure to make sure we don't choke down on the recovery, that we allow businesses to trade fully.
"We don't want to be stifling the recovery. So there's no sense that there's anything at the moment that's suggesting Plan B is needed."
Tory MP Mark Harper, chairman of the Covid Recovery Group, added: "Plan B Covid restrictions aren't cost-free.
"Shutting down bits of the economy means there's less revenue to fund public services like the NHS."
No 10 defended the Plan B package and insisted it would make a difference to bringing down cases.
