SAN ANTONIO, TX -SEPTEMBER 28: Stephon Castle #5, De'Aaron Fox 34 and Dylan Harper #2 of the San Antonio Spurs pose for photos during San Antonio Spurs Media Day at Victory Capital Performance Center on September 28, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) | Getty Images Lee Dresie Sun, October 18, 2026 at 4:21 AM UTC · 6 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement At the start of October, I had high hopes for a fan's Triple Crown for 2026-27. My main team, the Spurs, are co-favorites to win it all this season. My two local teams were also favorites – the Dodgers were already into the NLCS looking for a three-peat, and the Rams were everyone's favorite to win the Super Bowl. While nothing has changed for the Spurs, a lot has changed for the Dodgers and Rams. The Dodgers, two-time defending World Series champs, were just swept 4 – 0 by the Milwaukee Brewers. Preseason favorite Rams are 2 – 3, and about to fall three games behind the 49ers, who are now Vegas favorites. At least the Rams have better chances than the Dodgers, who have none.
To make it worse, I just realized that if we look backwards, each of my teams lost in the "final four" for each of their leagues. The Rams lost to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, the Spurs in the NBA Finals, and the Dodgers lost to the Brewers. Just like the Spurs against the Knicks, the Dodgers led in every game. I don't know what you would call the opposite of my hoped-for Triple Crown, but it would not be very nice.
But let's look forward instead of back. The Spurs remain co-favorites with OKC to win it all this season. Indeed, league GMs picked the Spurs ahead of OKC to prevail, with 77% predicting that Victor Wembayama will be the MVP. 2,000% of the GMs also predicted that Victor would repeat as Defensive Player of the Year, though I might have that percentage slightly off.
Closer to the main point of this post, Dylan Harper was voted the player most likely to have a break-out year, ahead of Cooper Flagg (27% to 7%). That vote may reflect that Flagg is starting at a much higher baseline, as he averaged 21 points, 6.7 boards and 4.5 assists last season. It is a bit harder to "break out" from numbers like that.
But I do want to address the "three guard" debate going on in the Spurs universe. I addressed this point several times last season, pointing out that having three excellent guards is a good thing and not a "problem". For instance, even before training camp opened in 2025, I wrote this:
"The basketball universe unanimously approved the Spurs' selection on Dylan Harper as the clear second best player in the 2025 NBA draft. The only concern I have heard is that Harper's skills overlap with those of the anticipated starting backcourt of De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
Having coached a bit, I know that having three good guards for the two backcourt spots is a good thing, not a bad one. The reason is simple — players don't play all 48 minutes. Indeed, the Spurs' best player last year (you know his name) averaged just 33 minutes per game. In 17 games with the Spurs, Fox averaged 34 minutes while Castle averaged 27. If Fox and Castle play the same amount this season, they will play a total of 61 minutes out of the 96 minutes available. That leaves 35 minutes for Harper or others — for instance. if Devin Vassell splits his time between the 2 and the 3. Harper will be not be 20 years old until March 2026 — and 20 is probably about the right number of minutes for such a young player in his rookie season."
This prediction was remarkably accurate – in the regular season, Fox averaged 31 minutes, Castle 30 and Harper 22. In the playoffs, those numbers ticked up to 33, 33 and 27. Interestingly, Devin Vassel led the team in playoff minutes with 34.8 per game, slightly more than Victor. Of course, Victor was ejected early in a T'Wolves game, pushing his average minutes per game down a bit.
But back to the three guards issue. Fox, Castle and Harper's playoff minutes totaled 93 minutes per game, very close to the 96 minutes available for the two guard spots. Which meant that the Spurs had two of their excellent guards on the floor virtually all the time – just the way you want it. If the Spurs play all three of them at the same time for portions of each game, and try to keep the per player minutes close to 32 per game, that will necessarily mean that for portions of each game, only one of them will be on the floor. If the goal is to maximize the number of lead ball-handlers on the floor, last season's system seems preferable. (Side note – the Spurs won 62 games last season and made it to the NBA Finals. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.). I am certainly OK with increasing Harper's minutes from the 22 he played in the regular season, and the 27 in the playoffs, but that can be done with the 2026-27 season model instead of forcing a three guard line-up.
Indeed, no one on the Spurs averaged more than 32 minutes per game in the regular season – a Spurs tradition that keeps the players fresh and their careers long. This also allows the non-starters to get real minutes and stay sharp. So long as Harper is getting his minutes, no one should care who is starting. Something Manu Ginobili can certainly attest to.
This is especially true because while the Spurs do not have a logjam at guard, they do in the frontcourt. Assuming Victor, Luke Kornet and the rookie soak up all 48 of the center minutes, that leaves 96 minutes for the two frontcourt spots. And the Spurs have a bunch of good players vying for those minutes. Vassel, Julian Champagnie, Tobias Harris, Keldon Johnson, Carter Bryant, and Harrison Barnes. That is six legitimate NBA players.
Last season, the two starters, Vassel and Champaigne, combined for 58 of the 96 minutes. Harris averaged 28 minutes in Detroit, and should play about the same this year. We are up to 86 minutes, leaving only 10 minutes for 6 th Man of the Year Johnson, potential star Bryant and whatever minutes Barnes gets. If the Spurs use the three guard line-up for even ten minutes per game, that leaves ZERO minutes for Johnson, Bryant and Barnes. And I am pretty sure the Spurs don't want to significantly cut the minutes of either Vassel or Champagnie. Fun fact: those two had the second and third best plus-minus on the team. You can guess who had the best.
If I had a vote, which I don't, I would vote for minimizing the three-guard line-up.
I wrote most of this before the Spurs' Friday night preseason game against the Suns. The Spurs started the game with the three-guard line-up, plus Vassel and Victor. When the Spurs made their first substitution (Champagnie for Fox) at the 6:34 mark of the first quarter, they were already up by 16 points, 24 – 8. Mitch Johnson said that they will start the three guards against OKC in the season opener on Tuesday. Maybe that is why I don't have a vote.
Source: Sports
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