About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement CLEVELAND — For better or worse, the Guardians and their 2026 MLB playoff run continue to push the limits on the phrase expect the unexpected .
First, did you expect the Guardians to be in the American League Championship Series ?
The Guardians lost 7-3 to the Tampa Rays in Game 4 of the ALCS on Saturday, Oct. 17, at Progressive Field. The teams are tied 2-2 in the best-of-seven showdown, which is now guaranteed to return to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, for Game 6.
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The grounds crew pulls the tarp before Game 4 of the ALCS between Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. (Ken Blaze, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) The grounds crew pulls the tarp before game four of the ALCS between Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. (Ken Blaze, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 1 / 2 Guardians-Rays Game 4 of ALCS begins in rain delay, see photos The grounds crew pulls the tarp before Game 4 of the ALCS between Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. (Ken Blaze, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 1 / 2 Guardians-Rays Game 4 of ALCS begins in rain delay, see photos The grounds crew pulls the tarp before Game 4 of the ALCS between Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. (Ken Blaze, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) 2 / 2 Guardians-Rays Game 4 of ALCS begins in rain delay, see photos The grounds crew pulls the tarp before game four of the ALCS between Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians in the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. (Ken Blaze, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect) Did you expect defensive miscues to plague the Guardians while they had a chance to seize a commanding series lead in Game 4?
Second baseman Travis Bazzana failed to cleanly field a ground ball in the first inning, but Cleveland was not harmed by it. The Guardians weren't as fortunate in the seventh inning when right fielder Chase DeLauter let the ball scoot past him as he tried to scoop Jonathan Aranda's single off the grass. The error allowed an unearned run and simultaneously set the table for Chandler Simpson's sacrifice fly during the next at-bat. The Rays built a 5-1 lead with a three-run seventh. Cleveland couldn't catch up.
"[There were] a couple unfortunate plays for us tonight that we usually complete," Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said.
Oct 17, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter (24) runs after the ball following a fielding error on the ball hit by Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Jonathan Aranda (not pictured) during the seventh inning in game four of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images Did you expect Guardians relief pitcher Shawn Armstrong to play again this season after he suffered a nasty left calf strain against the Rays on July 24 at Tropicana Field, let alone fill the role of an opener for Cleveland against his former Tampa Bay team in Game 4?
Armstrong, who didn't allow a hit or walk in the first inning before being relieved by Foster Griffin to begin the second, sure didn't see it coming.
"I think you guys [in the media] could probably read the room with the look on my face after that [calf strain] that I thought it was over," Armstrong said. "I mean, for sure, especially the unknowns in regards to what the injury truly was going to entail and what it was going to be."
Oct 17, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Tim Herrin (29) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning in game four of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images Did you expect Tim Herrin to enter Game 4 in the sixth inning after fellow relief pitcher Daniel Espino had surrendered a go-ahead RBI double to Rays third baseman Junior Caminero and escape a runners-on-second-and-third-with-no-outs jam unscathed?
Unfortunately for Herrin, his Houdini act was overshadowed. Richie Palacios hit an infield single off him to begin the seventh inning, and then the floodgates opened as the Rays produced two hits against Guardians reliever Slade Cecconi and capitalized on DeLauter's defensive gaffe.
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Even before first pitch, the circumstances surrounding Game 4 were weird.
For instance, did you expect MLB to drag its feet before deciding to postpone Game 4 on the night of Friday, Oct. 16, after Cleveland had been predictably pummeled by rain for most of the day? Game 4 was pushed back a day, and Game 5 is set for 5:08 p.m. Sunday, Oct. 18, in Cleveland. It will feature an All-Star starting pitching matchup between the Guardians' Parker Messick and the Rays' Drew Rasmussen.
"Now it's a three-game series. I'd put our guys up against any team in the world in a three-game series," Vogt said.
Oct 17, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt (12) takes the ball from pitcher Foster Griffin (22) during the fifth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays in game four of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images Vogt's glass-half-full look aside, did you expect the Guardians to make the playoffs? How about vie for the AL pennant?
Just before the 2026 season started, FanGraphs gave the Guardians a 15.2% chance to qualify for the postseason and an 8% chance to reach the ALCS. Roughly two months ago, on Aug. 17, the projections for the Guardians to earn berths in the playoffs and ALDS were at 25.5% and 15.9%, respectively.
The American League was weak this season, so the three-time reigning AL Central champion Guardians charging to the doorstep of the World Series never seemed to be impossible. But did you expect them to rally from a 2-0 deficit in the AL Division Series against the Chicago White Sox and win the best-of-five ALDS 3-2?
The Guardians became the 11th team in MLB history to prevail in a best-of-five postseason series after falling behind 2-0 and the fourth club to overcome a 2-0 hole in the ALDS after losing the first two games at home.
Oct 17, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Tampa Bay Rays infielder Junior Caminero (13) warms up before game four of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images Did you expect the Guardians to be neck and neck with the Rays through four games of the ALCS? The Rays went 98-64 in the regular season, finishing with the best record in the AL and the third-best record in MLB. Then in the ALDS, the Rays swept the New York Yankees 3-0. The Guardians went 85-77, posting the fourth-best record in the AL and 11th-best record in MLB.
Yet, it took until Game 4 of the ALCS for the Rays to convincingly look like the better team.
However, history suggests the Guardians still have a better than 50% chance to win the ALCS. Teams who win Game 4 to tie a seven-game postseason series have gone on to win the series 33 of 69 times (47.8%), including 10 of 22 times in the league championship series (45.5%).
Take those numbers with a grain of salt, though. Baseball is random, and the Guardians are really random.
For better or worse, they will inevitably give everyone more reminders to expect the unexpected .
Nate Ulrich is the sports columnist of the Akron Beacon Journal and a sports features writer. Nate can be reached at nulrich@thebeaconjournal.com . On Twitter: @ByNateUlrich .
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Guardians' playoff run and ALCS vs. Rays filled with surprises. Opinion
Source: Sports
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